politalX Politics Store - Fire in the East

However, his book, whilst taking a sharp look at Asia's military emergence, tends to gloss over the West's role in provoking Asian militarisation. For example, he doesn't consider how the USA's proneness towards using cruise missiles against Iraq, (as well as Sudan, Afghanistan, and Yugoslavia) effectively rationalizes the desire for other states to develop the means of deterring such attacks. Secondly, he gives the impression that the main threat to world peace comes from Asian states, (esp. India and China) turning internal social pressures outward into military aggression. In reality, as any Sudani can attest, it is the USA which uses military aggression as a means of maintaining its standing in the world, and mobilizing the population at home. Finally, it is the West's failure to opt for any form of nuclear disarmament that pushed India towards becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, and it is NATO's misbehaviour in Kosovo, that is increasingly driving China, India, Russia and other Asian states together into an anti-Western military alliance.

In short, while analyzing the situation in the East well, Bracken does a poor job of looking at the West's responsibility for it. Nonetheless, his book is a harbinger of the coming clash between Eastern nationalism and Western imperialism, which will shape the 21st century.

Moreover, "the ballistic missile has empowered pawns to check the dominant powers; countries that were once pawns now have the reach of knights and bishops". The new power and status of the Asian pawns are almost coinciding with the emergence of Asia-Pacific as the new power house of world economy. Hopefully, the present South East Asian financial crisis is just an aberration or an interlude. Bracken draws several pertinent analogies to explain how all the new developments in Asia fall into a historical pattern.

When Europe fought the Thirty Years War in the 17th century, rest of the world remained unaffected. But the Industrial Revolution made Europe rich, powerful militarily and to acquire colonies. Thus, its later wars became everybody's wars. His conclusion is that Asia, too, is "going through a comparable transformation". Throughout, the author proceeds with a bold assumption that the conditions that had led to Asia's decline and colonial subjugation have changed for the better.

There is something 'disruptive' about Asian resurgence. Bracken terms the weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles as disruptive technologies because "they nullify Western advantages in conventional weapons" in Asia. They are equilisers in that, military asymetry will not matter much: A country with crude disruptive technological capability can stand up to a leader in them. Moreover, a poor country can also acquire biological and chemical weapons, if not nuclear weapons, and ballistic missiles to deliver them.

This development has introduced a fundamental change in the strategic environment of Asia. For a long time, the predominant military power in Asia has not been Asian. The US indeed is the big power in Asia even at the moment, but the disruptive technologies made its predominance irrelevant. And Washington can no longer 'manage' Asian affairs the way it likes.

Such a situation developed despite the US efforts to contain the spread ofthese technologies through the so-called non-proliferation strategy. Though it seemed to work for a while -- mostly in tarding the spread, not the spread 'per se' -- it ultimately failed. Bracken attributes this failure to the American attempt to "sustain permanently an asymetric advantage" favouring the US. The fundamental difference between the arms control efforts between the two super powers on the one hand and in Asia on the other, is that while in the former case maintaining stability was the focus, in the latter it was maintaining the status quo. It may be recalled that one of the early arms control efforts -- the Washington Naval Treaty -- was aimed at limiting the Japanese naval strength so that the US and Britain could maintain their lead. It ultimately failed then; a similar strategy will fail in future.

'Nationalism' makes the second nuclear age distinct from the first one. It provides the impetus in countries from Israel to North Korea -- the area what the author somewhat crudely calls 'the arc of terror'. The crux is this: Several countries possessing disruptive technologies and driven by 'nationalism' as well as 'national security' considerations will undoubtedly make Asia a more unstable world. Moreover, for the West which long ago enjoyed and suffered 'nationalism', the Asian penchant for a dead and gone sentiment looks incomprehensible. Therefore, for Asia and the West, the emerging order presents many challenges and the failure to effectively meet them will be catastrophic. The author lists out the merits of several strategies for the West including the 'World Government'. Mostly, he himself is not convinced of their efficacy. His conclusion? "An age of Western control is ending, and the challenge is not how to shape what is happening but how to adapt to it". Bracken has written a fascinating book. In just about 180 pages, he manages admirably an illuminating analysis of too complex a subject. A less competent author would have needed double the space, with lengthy citations and distracting footnotes to substantiate his assumptions. The two-page bibliography will disappoint those keen on carrying out further research--a trivial shortcoming compared to the merits of the book.

D. Shyam Babu, Assistan Editor, The Observer of Busness & Politics newspaper, New Delhi, India

"Fire in the East" provides an clear summary of the subtle diplomacy which will be required. Fascinating read.